|
No one likes a pessimist but the question everyone one is asking now is "when is the aviation downturn coming" not “is a downturn coming?” It is more important now than ever to find out what strategies will help you manage risk and grow your business during a downturn.
So far the US credit crunch has not affected passenger demand, but few industries are as exposed. Volatile capital markets have hit all borrowers and aviation lenders are not immune.
The North American airline market will change faster than any region. If two majors merge, it is likely that all the majors will join together. Open skies between the US and Europe will offer new opportunities and threats for all transatlantic carriers.
Airfinance Journal’s 28th Annual New York Airfinance Conference will examine these trends and how they will affect all airlines. The conference will give you the opportunity to ensure your success in this competitive and complex market whilst providing you with answers to many crucial questions. At this key time for aviation, it has never been more important for the industry to meet and debate the following issues:
- Will consolidation really strengthen the US market?
- Will unions allow M&A?
- Who will win when Open Skies start: US or European airlines?
- Can listed operating lessors grow when stocks are down?
- Have recent buyers of leasing companies and aircraft overpaid?
- How should airlines fund their orders?
- Can airlines make money with oil at $100?
- How easy is it for airlines to cut capacity?
- Which airlines will be the winners and losers in the next aviation downturn?
This conference is your best opportunity to network with over 350 airlines, lessors, financiers, manufacturers, insurers and law firms and hear the latest developments from the people shaping the market.
Sunday April 20th, 2008
7.00pm Opening Cocktail Reception
Hosted by: Katten Muchin Rosenman
Day One: Monday April 21st, 2008
08.15 Registration and refreshments
09.00 Opening remarks from the Chairman
Alasdair Whyte, Group Editor, Airfinance Journal
09.10 Keynote address: Virgin America
- Launching the US’ newest start-up
- Financing the fleet
- Raising equity financing
- Cost management
Bob Dana, Chief Financial Officer, Virgin America
09.40 Panel discussion: Crystal balls – what will happen in the next downturn?
- Which geographic markets will be worst affected?
- Will it be as bad as the last one?
- Which types of airline will be most affected?
- Oil – operating in a $100 environment
- Oil supply and demand – factors affecting pricing
- Merger and acquisition opportunities – how many airlines should the US have?
Ray Neidl, Analyst, Calyon Securities
10.10 Morning coffee hosted by: ORIX Aviation
10.50 Global large aircraft demand
- North American growth forecasts
- New order forecasts
- Comparing aircraft types
- Financing trends
John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer, Customers, Airbus
Randy Tinseth, Vice President, Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes
11.30 Panel discussion: The airline view – business and finance strategies for 2008 and beyond
- Market growth outlook
- Reviewing available financing options
- Cost management and competition
- Key challenges facing the region’s carriers and how these are being managed
Brian Dunne, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, ACE Aviation Holdings
Ted Christie, Senior Vice President, Finance, Frontier Airlines
Peter Warlick, Managing Director, Corporate Finance & Banking, American Airlines
Ricardo Sánchez Baker, Chief Financial Officer, Aeromexico
12.10 Breaking down barriers to global capital investment and ownership
- The evolving actual control test in the US after Virgin America
- Liberalization in the wake of the EU-US Air Transport
- Agreement and second stage negotiations
- Cross border equity investments after Lufthansa/JetBlue
Panel Moderator: Kenneth P. Quinn, Partner, Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP
John Byerly, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Aviation
Daniel Calleja, Director, Air Transport Directorate, European Commission
Andrew Steinberg, former Assistant Secretary for Aviation and International Affairs
Mike Whitaker, Senior Vice President – Alliances, International and Regulatory Affairs, United Airlines
Timothy Lynes, Partner, Katten Muchin Rosenman LLP
13.10 Lunch
2.30 Operating leasing in North America
- Operating leasing penetration versus the ROW
- How do lessors view US airlines
- Lessons from the last downturn
Panel moderator: John Leech, Senior Vice President, Head of Marketing, ORIX Aviation
Richard Cherney, Executive Vice President, Aviation Capital Group (ACG)
John Nozell, Chief Investment Officer, AWAS Aviation Services
3.10 Panel discussion: How will operating lessors fare in the global equity markets?
- Are banks still prepared to lend?
- Are securitizations still possible?
- Investor relations in a downturn
- Comparing the public aircraft lessors
- Portfolio strategies
- New order philosophies
- Funding differences
- Dividend policies
- Management structures
Mark S. Streeter, Managing Director, Airline/Aircraft Credit Research, JPMorgan Securities
Jamie Baker, Managing Director, Airline/Aircraft Equity Research, JPMorgan
John McMahon, Chief Executive Officer, Genesis Lease
Limited
Colm Barrington, Chief Executive Officer & Director, Babcock & Brown Air Limited
Ron Wainshal, Chief Executive Officer, Aircastle Limited
John Slattery
4.00 Afternoon coffee hosted by: ORIX Aviation
4.30 Oil – operating in a $110 environment
- Supply and demand – factors affecting pricing
- Political risk
- Oil refining
Dr Leo Drollas, Deputy Executive Director/Chief Economist, Centre for Global Energy Studies
5.00 Panel discussion: Who has won with ASU?
- A quick guide to the new export credit rules
- The effect on Airbus and Boeing
- Is export credit unfair on US airlines?
Robert Morin, Vice President, Transportation Division, Export-Import Bank of the United States
Timothy Myers, Vice President/Senior Managing Director – Structured Finance Aircraft Financial Services, Boeing Capital Corporation
Gordon Welsh, Head of Aerospace Finance, ECGD
5.30 Chairman’s closing remarks and close of day one
Evening cocktail reception hosted by: GECAS
Day Two: Tuesday April 22nd, 2008
08.30 Registration and refreshments
09.00 Opening remarks from the Chairman
Alasdair Whyte, Group Editor, Airfinance Journal
09.10 Continental Airlines’ strategy
- Managing fuel and other costs
- How does it choose sources of funding?
- 2008 predictions
Gerry Laderman, Senior Vice President – Finance and Treasurer, Continental Airlines
09.40 Global aviation financing trends
- Global growth as a megatrend
- Reading the demand for metal
- The role of infrastructure in fueling growth
John Stewart, Senior Vice President, GECAS
10.10 Panel discussion: How should US airlines finance their orders?
- Bond versus loan market
- Pre-delivery finance terms
- Locking in rates
José Abramovici, Global Head of Aviation Group & Rail Finance, Calyon
Olivier Trauchessec, Managing Director, Head of Global Marketing and Head of Aviation Finance Americas, BNP Paribas
Thomas Hollahan, Managing Director Global Aviation, Citi
Jeffrey S Craine, Managing Director, SkyWorks Capital, LLC
10.50 Morning coffee hosted by: ORIX Aviation
11.40 Panel discussion: Aviation hedge funds
- Where are we in the cycle?
- Does aviation still make sense?
- Have funds got any money left?
- How long will they stay in the sector?
- Distressed transactions – lessons from the downturn
Panel moderator: Edward P. Christian, Partner, McDermott Will & Emery
Evan Wallach, Managing Director, Guggenheim Capital Markets
Ziki Slav, Investment Analyst, Marathon Asset Management
12.20 Panel discussion: EETCs and the credit crunch
- EETC yields
- Types of buyer
- How big is the market?
Reno Bianchi, Managing Director, Global Special Situations Group, Citi
Gregory Lee, Managing Director, Head of Transport & Infrastructure Finance, Investment Banking Department, Goldman Sachs
Patrick Käufer, Managing Director, Global Capital Markets, Morgan Stanley
1.00 Lunch
2.20 Case Study: AirTran Airways
- New routes and fleet plans
- Financing requirements
- Managing costs – fuel, labor and others
- Competing in the North American market
Arne Haak, Vice President of Finance and Treasurer, AirTran Airways
2.50 The new Northwest
- Life after Chapter 11
- Aircraft fleet plans
- Financing requirements
- Managing costs
Daniel Matthews, Senior Vice President and Treasurer, Northwest Airlines
3.20 How will labor issues affect the industry?
- How happy are airline employees?
- Possible future conflict areas
- Union views on consolidation
Captain John Prater, President, Airline Pilots Association
3.50 Afternoon coffee hosted by: ORIX Aviation
4.10 Monolines – what capacity do they still have for aviation?
- Are any monolines going to be downgraded?
- Do lessor securitizations make sense in a downturn?
- Is the arbritage still there?
Jorge A. Gana, Managing Director, Structured Finance, Assured Guaranty
4.40 Panel discussion: Which aircraft will lose most value in tough airline markets?
- Are modern narrowbodies really safe investments?
- How will regionals fare?
- Can cargo conversions save the day?
- Will India and China help?
- Engine selection
Gregory A. May, President and Chief Executive Officer, Q Aviation
Doug Kelly, Vice President - Asset Valuation and Chief Appraiser, Avitas
Stephane Garson, General Manager Marketing, Commercial Engines, CFM
Giovanni Tramparulo, Senior Vice President Finance & CFO, ATR
5.10 Chairman’s closing remarks and close of conference
For further information please contact Louisa Jones on
ljones@euromoneyplc.com
|